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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
Don't know if anyone is really interested but as a community service here is data on the "novel" COVID 19. Actually this is a new rna virus in the corona species, having a double corona. It is no more lethal than the flu. In fact this year the Victorian B strain of the flue has killed over 10,000 worldwide. The only difference is that there is currently no "flu shot" for this virus. Then again there is no flue shot for SARS either. Currently there are close to 250,000 cases world wide, with Italy, and EU dying on the vine. The spread is by aerosol, and contact. They are saying that 14 days is the inoculation period to onset of disease. Actually it is closer to 28. And what they either do not seem to realize or refuse to tell, that hosts may remain infected after recovery for another 2 - 3 weeks. The epidemiological curve is usually bimodal, so I expect another outbreak in China where it supposedly initiated, but there are several Italians that believe it was started in Milan. Depending upon the lunacy that we are seeing, it is hard to predict whether the next outbreak will be greater or lesser than the first. As you know, countries are shut down, and people are going out of work. Shortening hours will do nothing to decrease the spread,but is basically a cost saving idea. The virus is less than 5 microns in size, but stupidity is promoting paper masks that allow 10 microns to pass through. Borders are now closed between Canada and USA as predicted. Mexico border are Semi open, which is interesting. The Death rate is at 10%, higher in Italy. The death rate in children is 2% (data from China). 60-80 percent for ages 65 to 80. and 4% in those from 30-50. As of March 18. 2020 here are the numbers. Italy had 4207 new cases, 475 new deaths with current totals of 35,713 infected and 2978 deaths. Fatality rate is 11%+ and politicians are blaming the "poor" health system in Italy. Forget the fact that the virus will definitely mutate, hopefully to a less lethal form, but then again, the potency at this time seems to be increasing. Spain had 1390 total cases (13716) new cases, France 1404, total cases (9134) Germany 1042 total cases now (8198). UK infections is now 2626. At this time all European countries have reported infected.

Iran is another hot bed. As of yesterday 1192 new cases and 147 new deaths occurred with totals of 17391 infected and 533 deaths. Northern and central Africa are now reporting infections. Australia has declared a biomedical emergency. actually a fancy name for bio terrorist response which allows the implementation of marshal law. Reporting out of Australia is spotty but currently reports 500 cases and 6 fatalities.
All countries have or will be locking down their borders to all travel. Airlines have either grounded their fleets or are operation at 20%. Bankruptcy is expected by the end of May for most.


US cases continue to increase with hot spots in NY 1374 12 deaths, CA 583 10 deaths and WA 787 48 deaths. NJ increased to 267 from 178 CT is now 41 from 26. New Jersey and Pennsylvania have declared curfews (martial law), and as you know most business are either closing or shortening hours. Bars, restaurants, libraries and any gathering places are being mandatorily closed.



Current modelling study by the CDC at home is predicting 18 months to 2 years of "social distancing" which means the economy will collapse. If you have seen the stock market it is barely holding on.


As has been seen throughout hx, it will be interesting to see where the breaking point occurs and civil rebellion results. It seems to be coming very close in Italy as the people lose faith in their government.

I will receive my next updates later today, and if anyone is interested I can continue with the updates. But you have to let me know. As I said this data is from 3/18/20
 

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Bring it on Athena. The response is FAR worse than the disease IMO. This is just more proof that the world as a whole is mismanaged.
 

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Discussion Starter #4 (Edited)
Interested in updates. Would also like to know your background regarding the information sources.
Nathine Goldenthal MD, MPH PhD.
Board Certified Occupational Medicine
Board Certified Preventive Medicine
Board Certified Forensic Investigator
Board Certified Forensic Medicine.
Sub Specialized in Occupational Neurotoxicology and Rare Diseases.
Undergrad and Masters in Epidemiology and Statistics.

I retired.

Information for COVID obtained from pre news release information from the University of Minnesota Medical Dept.

So Yes I know and I watch, the world running around like a headless chicken, Having no concept of Personal protective equipment wearing, requirement or even disposal. Even though this is overblown the attempted generation in panic of the populous is the concern (I have no idea why). Doesn't take much to start a war and find a scapegoat to blame in order to keep things in control. 5PM to 8AM curfews in New Jersey and Pennsylvania, aka martial law, is only the start. The number of infections will increase, into the 10s of thousands, and the deaths may be equally as high. But like smallpox, not everyone will die, nor will everyone even have symptoms. It won't be the virus that brings the world down, it will be the crashing of economies for each country that will destroy it.

Again those who like to stand on mountain tops and proclaim the end is near are surfacing as they seem to do with the Mayan Calendar, the new millennial crash, etc. The sad thing is that people really believe the hype.
 

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Nathine Goldenthal MD, MPH PhD.
Board Certified Occupational Medicine
Board Certified Preventive Medicine
Board Certified Forensic Investigator
Board Certified Forensic Medicine.
Sub Specialized in Occupational Neurotoxicology and Rare Diseases.
Undergrad and Masters in Epidemiology and Statistics.

I retired.

Information for COVID obtained from pre news release information from the University of Minnesota Medical Dept.

So Yes I know and I watch, the world running around like a headless chicken, Having no concept of Personal protective equipment wearing, requirement or even disposal. Even though this is overblown the attempted generation in panic of the populous is the concern (I have no idea why). Doesn't take much to start a war and find a scapegoat to blame in order to keep things in control. 5PM to 8AM curfews in New Jersey and Pennsylvania, aka martial law, is only the start. The number of infections will increase, into the 10s of thousands, and the deaths may be equally as high. But like smallpox, not everyone will die, nor will everyone even have symptoms. It won't be the virus that brings the world down, it will be the crashing of economies for each country that will destroy it.

Again those who like to stand on mountain tops and proclaim the end is near are surfacing as they seem to do with the Mayan Calendar, the new millennial crash, etc. The sad thing is that people really believe the hype.
I only have a BA in History, but I'd like to add, "May the Lord reward them according to their works!"0:)
 

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Athena, I am not a physician. However, I do participate in calls with, and receive briefings from, the CDC, WHO, DHS, Johns Hopkins, and Harvard. None of those organizations are blaming the health system in Italy as part of their communication. They have identified a root cause. Italy had a very large number of patients already hospitalized for pneumonia. Those patients presented before Co19 was generally considered nor were they tested. So, no quarantine, thus early and unchecked proliferation of the contamination chain without consideration of strategic consequence. Italy was very responsive in its ban on travel from China. However, they were terrible in monitoring ingress generally into the country after their ban. So, passengers merely arrived in another EU country and drove or took public transport back into Italy, expanding the contamination chain. No person under the age of 10 has passed, globally. I think the number is 99 % of those who died in Italy had a preexisting illness that contributed to the patient's inability to recover. I have neither heard nor seen any reference to the expected duration of the social distancing recommendation. We have been provided hypothetical models that consider respect or ignorance or guidance. None of those models indicate a duration of anywhere near 18 months. The vectors meet at around 8 weeks +/-. The global death rate is around 3%, Italy's rate was around 5% ( a couple of days ago). Australia's response does not seem to be remarkable to me, from what I recall reading.

Again, I am not a scientist. I am in risk management for one of the Big 5 healthcare companies in America. I am betting that we see either the peak or a turnaround right around the middle of April 2020. I would encourage everyone to do two things, stay home and remain optimistic. China and Korea have already rounded the bend.
 

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howdy, as a retiree(i hate people that start thier statements that way)from a partial career in loss control management which could be translated as safety engineer, i was quite impressed with the testing procedure used in south korea shown on tv today. there is literally no contact between tester and tested or the resulting test media. the procedure shown here in washington state is far less safe and seems to have media contamination risks as well.
ken
 

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Athena, I am not a physician. However, I do participate in calls with, and receive briefings from, the CDC, WHO, DHS, Johns Hopkins, and Harvard. None of those organizations are blaming the health system in Italy as part of their communication. They have identified a root cause. Italy had a very large number of patients already hospitalized for pneumonia. Those patients presented before Co19 was generally considered nor were they tested. So, no quarantine, thus early and unchecked proliferation of the contamination chain without consideration of strategic consequence. Italy was very responsive in its ban on travel from China. However, they were terrible in monitoring ingress generally into the country after their ban. So, passengers merely arrived in another EU country and drove or took public transport back into Italy, expanding the contamination chain. No person under the age of 10 has passed, globally. I think the number is 99 % of those who died in Italy had a preexisting illness that contributed to the patient's inability to recover. I have neither heard nor seen any reference to the expected duration of the social distancing recommendation. We have been provided hypothetical models that consider respect or ignorance or guidance. None of those models indicate a duration of anywhere near 18 months. The vectors meet at around 8 weeks +/-. The global death rate is around 3%, Italy's rate was around 5% ( a couple of days ago). Australia's response does not seem to be remarkable to me, from what I recall reading.

Again, I am not a scientist. I am in risk management for one of the Big 5 healthcare companies in America. I am betting that we see either the peak or a turnaround right around the middle of April 2020. I would encourage everyone to do two things, stay home and remain optimistic. China and Korea have already rounded the bend.
While everything you say is true, this is not the way the media and government are presenting this to the public.

The media in the US is doing a disservice to the American public. People need to remember that they are driven by advertising dollars. Journalistic integrity is pretty much a thing of the past. Sensationalism is the order of the day. Not too surprising since they need to compete with social media and reality television.

This is at worst only slightly more deadly than the seasonal flu, and then only because there is no current vaccine. How do you provide a realistic death rate when likely at least half or more people are not diagnosed?

Bottom line: You only need to practice the same hygiene as you would to protect against cold or flu. You should have always been doing this. The reaction is unwarranted and more dangerous than the actual disease. People need to calm down. Unfortunately, the damage may already be done. I hope not.

This ain't Ebola.
 

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Discussion Starter #11
While everything you say is true, this is not the way the media and government are presenting this to the public.

The media in the US is doing a disservice to the American public. People need to remember that they are driven by advertising dollars. Journalistic integrity is pretty much a thing of the past. Sensationalism is the order of the day. Not too surprising since they need to compete with social media and reality television.

This is at worst only slightly more deadly than the seasonal flu, and then only because there is no current vaccine. How do you provide a realistic death rate when likely at least half or more people are not diagnosed?

Bottom line: You only need to practice the same hygiene as you would to protect against cold or flu. You should have always been doing this. The reaction is unwarranted and more dangerous than the actual disease. People need to calm down. Unfortunately, the damage may already be done. I hope not.

This ain't Ebola.
Panic has now set into Arizona. As of today all bars, restaurants, eating places are closed except for takeout. National guard will now be in supermarkets supposedly to restock shelves, but really to prevent hoarding. Massive layoffs are occurring with no pay so in approximately two weeks when a paycheck doesn't arrive and ... people will start to consider other options. As always there is no official order for landlords to forgive late payments or loans, but to "voluntarily" allow. I fear more will die when primitive survival instincts take over.

Here are the stats from the Victorian B Flu H1N1 (Not Covid 19). up to 646,000 deaths worldwide, 61000 in US. for a year and that is supposedly with the majority of the population having flu shots. No one panics then, so.... ? Is there something else that is not being said?

Anyways here are some interesting facts that I can't resolve as yet. Life span of the virus is 3 hours as an aerosol, 4 hours on copper surface, 24 hours on cardboard, 72 hours on plastic and steel. If this virus mutates and encysts then lifespan is in years. But the lifespan on the different surfaces doesn't make sense. Any chemists or metallurgists out that have any theories?

The economies of the States and the US are near collapse. In other words the dollar may soon be worth 0. For those, (and there will be many) who will soon not even have a dollar to buy food, and the overload on food banks, people will soon loose confidence and then we all know what happens. It is not the disease that destroys the world, but the panic permeated by those who promote it. This disaster that they are creating will affect us well into the future.
 

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Discussion Starter #12
I will post the COVID update later, and of course it won't be good news. All numbers are suspect to be on the low side. China is still active, but not reporting cases so as not to panic their population.
 

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While everything you say is true, this is not the way the media and government are presenting this to the public.

The media in the US is doing a disservice to the American public. People need to remember that they are driven by advertising dollars. Journalistic integrity is pretty much a thing of the past. Sensationalism is the order of the day. Not too surprising since they need to compete with social media and reality television.

This is at worst only slightly more deadly than the seasonal flu, and then only because there is no current vaccine. How do you provide a realistic death rate when likely at least half or more people are not diagnosed?

Bottom line: You only need to practice the same hygiene as you would to protect against cold or flu. You should have always been doing this. The reaction is unwarranted and more dangerous than the actual disease. People need to calm down. Unfortunately, the damage may already be done. I hope not.

This ain't Ebola.
Agree on media disservice. Just recently recoveries and recovery rates are being reported; whereas before there was reporting only on deaths and cases. Demographic and prior health histories were also being excluded. These are all relative points of consideration.

Respectfully, comparing Co19 to the flu is not apples to apples. Vaccines, proven testing, effective treatments such as TamiFlu, etc., are present for the flu and are not for Co19. No human has developed a resistance to Co19 as it is new (novel). So, we can treat the flu at home with predictable rates of morbidity and recovery. Not true for Co19 and the healthcare system could lose its ability to deliver care to all who need it to survive. So, it is a real issue that is different than the flu and does require a unique response.

I think society's reaction is a little overblown. The supply chain is not disrupted for consumer products (generally) and the hoarding behavior is what is causing the issue. I do believe segregation is appropriate. On a percentage basis, this may prove to be more deadly than the flu. The raw numbers though will likely show something entirely different supporting that the flu kills more folks globally.
 

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Discussion Starter #14
Agree on media disservice. Just recently recoveries and recovery rates are being reported; whereas before there was reporting only on deaths and cases. Demographic and prior health histories were also being excluded. These are all relative points of consideration.

Respectfully, comparing Co19 to the flu is not apples to apples. Vaccines, proven testing, effective treatments such as TamiFlu, etc., are present for the flu and are not for Co19. No human has developed a resistance to Co19 as it is new (novel). So, we can treat the flu at home with predictable rates of morbidity and recovery. Not true for Co19 and the healthcare system could lose its ability to deliver care to all who need it to survive. So, it is a real issue that is different than the flu and does require a unique response.

I think society's reaction is a little overblown. The supply chain is not disrupted for consumer products (generally) and the hoarding behavior is what is causing the issue. I do believe segregation is appropriate. On a percentage basis, this may prove to be more deadly than the flu. The raw numbers though will likely show something entirely different supporting that the flu kills more folks globally.
As for novel viruses SARS and Swine Flu were novel, didn't cause such a panic. As for Tx on current flus, it is not helping the 64,000 US Deaths with the Victorian B Strain. Non the less this response is ridiculous. As for the supply chain, shelves are empty here, can't buy spaghetti sauce at Costco gives and idea how bad it is. All supermarkets are running out of everything. This is becoming totally panic driven and the question is why is the media doing this? What is the real endgame. Paranoia yes, but something just isn't being told.
 

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Discussion Starter #15
Update as of March 19 2020

Italy - 427 more deaths on the 19th with the number of deaths passing the total "revealed" for China. Italy is a smaller country and perhaps lack of mileage between towns may account for some but not for all. China had 34 new cases originating from Beijing.
All European countries are extending their lock downs.

France now reporting on hospitalize patients rather than total infected. 4461 hospitalized, 1122 in ICU, 108 new deaths.
Elsewhere in Europe, Germany's COVID-19 total passed the 10,000 mark, with the addition of 2,801 more cases today, according to the latest total from the Robert Koch Institute. The country has now reported 10,999 cases, 20 of them fatal.
Spain's health minister today reported 3,431 new cases, pushing its total to 17,147, El Pais reported. Officials also added 169 more deaths, lifting the fatality count to 767. The outbreak has overwhelmed Spain's health system, and the health ministry announced a plan to enlist 50,000 retired health professionals and medical and nursing students to help. Italy had earlier announced a similar measure.

In other European developments, Russia reported its first death, which involves a 79-year-old woman from Moscow who had underlying health conditions, Reuters reported, noting that the country has recorded 147 cases.
Iran, the country with the world's third highest case count, today reported 1,046 new cases, lifting its total to 18,407, according to the health ministry. It also reported 149 additional deaths, raising its fatality count to 1,284.

The World Health Organization (WHO) Eastern Mediterranean regional office (EMRO) said today that 20,759 cases in the region have been reported in 22 countries, the vast majority in Iran. The next three hardest-hit countries are Qatar (452), Pakistan (302), and Bahrain (269).
As for children, of course the experts are wrong again. Emerging epidemiologic reports on COVID-19 in children in China show that, while they are less likely than adults to be infected and have severe illness, they are still vulnerable to the pandemic coronavirus.
Today, a large study published in today's Pediatrics showed that children of all ages in Wuhan and surrounding areas were susceptible to the COVID-19 virus, and one—a 14-year-old boy—died from it. Young children were more at risk of serious illness than older children were. The proportion of severe and critical cases was 10.6 % for children younger than 1 year, 7.3% for those 1 to 5, 4.2% for those 6 to 10, 4.1% for those 11 to 15, and 3.0% for those 16 to 18. "Only one child died, and most cases were mild, with much fewer severe and critical cases (5.9%) than adult patients (18.5%)," they wrote.

Despite that finding, investigators said that children of all ages and both sexes were clearly at risk due to the coronavirus. "Although clinical manifestations of children's COVID-19 cases were generally less severe than those of adult patients, young children, particularly infants, were vulnerable to infection," they wrote.

Expecting US update today.
 

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howdy, i just got back from a run to the grocery store where there is still no toilet paper. when i got to the check out line, i gave the reccomended 6 ft space to the children ahead of me but the youngster behind pushed right up to me and i turned and asked him to give me some space. the woman AHEAD with the children got onto me with claws out and said i was rude to ask the youngster behind for space. if the mother behind had taught her children that our world is different now than last month and that space of six feet is reasonable and prudent, i would not have felt i should say something.
what do you think?
ken--perhaps rude ken
 

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howdy, i just got back from a run to the grocery store where there is still no toilet paper. when i got to the check out line, i gave the reccomended 6 ft space to the children ahead of me but the youngster behind pushed right up to me and i turned and asked him to give me some space. the woman AHEAD with the children got onto me with claws out and said i was rude to ask the youngster behind for space. if the mother behind had taught her children that our world is different now than last month and that space of six feet is reasonable and prudent, i would not have felt i should say something.
what do you think?
ken--perhaps rude ken
You were not rude; you were right. The kid shouldn't have been pushing against you anyhow, and NOW, your health and the kid's health require the extra, prudent caution.
 

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So, we can treat the flu at home with predictable rates of morbidity and recovery.
You can treat the symptoms only. There is no way to predict the outcome when a person becomes infected. There are too many variables. You can only guess based on historical data, assuming you have accurate historical data....even then individual cases are, just that.

BTW, This is very comparable to seasonal flu until shown to be otherwise. Why overreact to something unknown.

"We have nothing to fear, but fear itself."
 

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i would agree with Tleventry...what does stress do...compromise the immune system....hmmm....already weaken.....statistics are exactly that...statistics....everyone seems to want to predict...as was already noted if these economies fail none of it matters...take a deep breath....''love thy neighbor''...i predict we will survive this less scathed than predicted and healthier in the long run...our leaders are not leading.....be well...ride safe...live life....
 

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Discussion Starter #20
Police at costco and sams club to keep order in the lines that wait to enter the store. Trying the 6 foot approach is impossible. Never saw so many empty shelves. Had to go to 3 stores to get a few items.
 
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